Thursday, March 02, 2006

Milestone and lesson learned

On Full Tilt Poker yesterday I got lucky on the $0.05/0.10 NLHE tables a few times and made it up to $200 in my bankroll. So I can graduate to the $0.10/0.25 NLHE tables on FTP with the minimum buy in of $10.

I'm still at $80 in Bankroll on Pokerstars. I'm going to work on building up my bankroll there on the $0.05/0.10 NLHE games. I want to play the higher games there.

I still intend to play on FTP for this week. I'm been trying the $200K WSOP Monthly giveaway. There are "Round 1 freeroll qualifier" with 1800 players daily. I made it into the top 36 once last week which qualified me for the weekly freeroll. I had plans for the weekend, so I missed Round 2. I'll try it again this week.

A immediate lesson learn.

Risk/Reward. As opposed to tournaments, I think, you must be willing to lose all your chips if the odds are right.

In one hand last night, I started with 98 of spades in late position. Four or five players limp in or called a small raise. The flop came K74 with two spades. I bet small, and player one raise and then player two reraise putting me all in. I folded and the first player called the all in bet. The turn came a T and the river was a 2 of spades. The first player turned over KQ with Queen of spades and the second player had trips 7's. I would have taken the pot.

Odds analysis.

This is probably not 100% correctly, but this is my thinking. On the river, I had about 9 outs, or a 36% chance of making my flush and having the nuts. If it was one raiser I think my pot odds would have been about 50%. A single big raise would not have given me good odds to call (2:1). With three players in the pot (first raiser, second raiser, me) I would have gotten 3:1 which would have given me good pot odds to call. Given my bank roll management and the cash game, I think I should have called here.

Player analysis

Given the size of the raises, I don't think they were raising for the free card but they were trying to protect their 'made' hands. During the hand, I think I could have put these people on a trips, two pair or top pair top kicker.

The small risk of losing just your buy in if the odds are correct on a single hand is probably the big difference between tournaments and cash games.

Perhaps I thinking about this all wrong...

Current bankroll
FTP: $202.00 + 1/$26 satellite token
Pokerstars: $79.53

Live: $300.00

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